Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Groundhog Day 2016

CNN reports Punxsutawney Phil did not cast a shadow this morning, forecasting a short winter. In my nook of the woods the sky was solidly overcast. No chance for Phil’s comrades to see their shadow here either.

Keep in mind that according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Phil’s forecast has been worse than chance for the past three decades data was analyzed. Phil would have predicted the season's end more often correctly, had he flipped a coin.

In retrospect, average global temperature broke the record again last year. Phil may even act more erratically this year under El NiƱo conditions as Jonah Bromwich reported in his article with the title “A Fitting End for the Hottest Year on Record” published in The New York Times Dec. 23, 2015.

CNN provided some historical background on Phil yesterday under the headline “Punxsutawney Phil: Friend or foe? A Groundhog Day investigation”.

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This year Phil's prediction seems on the mark. We appear to enjoy an early spring. A week ago, The Washington Post divined, "We predict cherry blossoms to peak five days early in 2016; Park Service moves up forecast." In accord, our plum tree began to bloom two days ago (03/15/2016).

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