Groundhog Day 2017

NPR’s the two way ["Groundhog Day 2017: Winter Is (Still) Coming, Punxsutawney Phil Says”] reports today that Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow in Pennsylvania this morning, forecasting six more weeks of winter weather (see footage from the BBC here).

Our neighborhood lowland marmot has not shown, though the temperatures have been unseasonably warm. We peaked at 57 °F (14 °C) yesterday, roughly 10 degrees Fahrenheit (7 °C) warmer than average according to WeatherSpark. Today shall see similarly warm temperatures.

This morning, our sky was overcast. Had the marmot in my neighbor's front yard ventured out of his burrow, he would not have seen his shadow, but almost might have spotted the first daffodils in bloom.

Winter has been entirely mild here thus far. We had only one day of snowfall leaving three inches on the ground for a day or two.

The mild weather comes at no surprise. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the world again saw record-breaking temperatures last year (Global Analysis - Annual 2016). Our region has experienced extensive drought two months ago, and we noted several large-scale forest fires, a first in the quarter century I spent here (USATODAY, “Forest fires burn 119,000 acres in 8 Southeastern states”, Nov. 20, 2016).

In addition, the Tidewater area has experienced flooding more frequently and severely in recent years (William & Mary’s Virginia Institute of Marine Science report to the Virginia General Assembly, 2013, entitled “Recurrent Flooding Study for Tidewater Virginia").

Regardless of Phil's statistically rather risqué predictions, they have historically been worse than flipping a coin, the planet is clearly heating up and it shows. Minimizing our contribution to this worrisome trend can only help mitigation and should be a priority in private and in public life this year and in years to come.

Addendum

• The picture below was taken one week after Phil's showing. Despite of a seasonal two-day "cold spell" during that week, the daffodils are out in my neighborhood, while in Phil's defense a snowstorm is hitting the East Coast today (more news from The New York Times under the headline "Winter Storm Hits the Northeast") (02/09/2017).
  

  

  Daffodils begin to bloom Feb. 9, 2017.

  
  

Groundhog Day 2016

CNN reports Punxsutawney Phil did not cast a shadow this morning, forecasting a short winter. In my nook of the woods the sky was solidly overcast. No chance for Phil’s comrades to see their shadow here either.

Keep in mind that according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Phil’s forecast has been worse than chance for the past three decades data was analyzed. Phil would have predicted the season's end more often correctly, had he flipped a coin.

In retrospect, average global temperature broke the record again last year. Phil may even act more erratically this year under El Niño conditions as Jonah Bromwich reported in his article with the title “A Fitting End for the Hottest Year on Record” published in The New York Times Dec. 23, 2015.

CNN provided some historical background on Phil yesterday under the headline “Punxsutawney Phil: Friend or foe? A Groundhog Day investigation”.

Related Posts

• Groundhog Day 2015
• Groundhog Day 2014
• Groundhog Day 2013
• Groundhog Day 2012
• Annotations to Groundhog Day

Addendum

This year Phil's prediction seems on the mark. We appear to enjoy an early spring. A week ago, The Washington Post divined, "We predict cherry blossoms to peak five days early in 2016; Park Service moves up forecast." In accord, our plum tree began to bloom two days ago (03/15/2016).

Groundhog Day 2014

This morning low-land marmot Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, forecasting six more weeks of winter. Though cute, his predictions have been wrong in the previous two years and erratic at best over the past century. Let us see what happens this year on CNN.

Addenda

• Apparently Phil was lucky with his prediction this year. According to NOAA Online Weather Data available at the Southeast Regional Climate Center, over the six weeks following Groundhog Day, 2014, our average high was 49 °F and the low 28 °F. By contrast, between 2000 and 2014 the average highs for February and March were 69 °F and 79 °F, respectively, and the average lows 16 °F and 22 °F. This year's highs ranged more than 20 degrees below the 14-year averages. We experienced three major snowfalls in this time, the city exhausted its road salt budget for next year, and the school district implemented so many snow days that the school year had to be extended (04/10/2014).
• The groundhog's prediction for this year seems confirmed one more time. We had frost in higher elevations last night, which is unheard of for the second half of May (05/19/2014).
• Alas, 2014 succeeded in becoming the warmest year on record globally, Reuters reports (01/28/2015):

Related Posts

• Groundhog Day 2013
• Groundhog Day 2012
• Annotations to Groundhog Day

Groundhog Day 2012

Punxsutawney Phil divined six more weeks of winter today (read more in the CNN news blog post with the title "More winter weather, Punxsutawney Phil predicts" published today).

It is 60.8 ℉, or 16 °C, in central Virginia. The daffodils are in bloom!

Today, Sunday Feb. 19, 2012, it seems Phil was right!

I seem not to be the only one who finds this winter's weather peculiar. In accord with Lisa Foderaro's article with the title "Much to Savor, and Worry About, Amid Mild Winter’s Early Blooms" published online in today's New York Times, the snow melted a day later in my neck of the woods. The daffodils escaped unharmed (added 02/27/2012).

Phil was correct one more time Monday Mar. 5! This time, the snow lasted only the morning.

Daily mean temperatures (tick marks) and ranges (bars) [℉] in Charlottesville, VA, during the six weeks (blue bars) covered by Phil's prediction (source: NOAA). The blue dashed line indicates freezing temperature, that is 32 ℉. The arrows designate the only two snowy days. The photographs above were taken on those days (graph added Mar. 24, 2012).

In Charlottesville, VA, the average temperature was 46.18 ℉, or 7.88 ℃, during the six weeks of winter Phil predicted. Poor Phil!

The groundhog Marmota monax is no resident of Western Europe. However, its cousin the alpine marmot Marmota marmota represents a familiar sight in the Alps. Follow the link to the related post below for more on the origins of this tradition.

Addendum

• Last year would turn into the hottest year in the recorded history of the United States. That is, the average temperature in the lower 48 states registered at 55.3 ℉ (see Matt Smith's CNN article with the title "NOAA: 2012 broke U.S. heat records" published online Jan. 8, 2013)(01/09/2013).

Related Posts

• Annotations to Groundhog Day