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Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Fundamental Research & Fragile X Syndrome

On Sep. 23, 2008, National Public Radio's Morning Edition aired a report on progress in research on Fragile X syndrome or FXS for short. You may listen to the podcast here. In FXS, the gene Fmr1 is not expressed in nerve cells. This gene encodes a messenger RNA-binding repressor protein known as fragile X mental retardation protein, or FMRP for short. The protein hinders the translation of the genetic code into protein in protein synthesis. Recent studies in the laboratory of Mark Bear, director of the Picower Institute at M.I.T., suggest that a specific type of receptor for the excitatory neurotransmitter glutamate plays a crucial role in the synthesis of FMRP. Neurotransmitters are molecules that convey information from one nerve cell to another across the synaptic cleft. The synapse constitutes the contact between the nerve cells. Glutamate and its receptors are instrumental in the strengthening of synapses. 

Mark Bear is fundamentally interested in the development of the cerebral cortex. As I summarized in my post dated Aug. 14, 2008, the strengthening of glutamatergic synapses is understood today as the basic mechanism underlying brain plasticity, learning and memory. The stabilization of synapses profoundly affects cortical development. Perturbation of synaptic growth and pruning is suspected to be involved in the development of mental disorders like autism spectrum disorder (ASD), schizophrenia, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and manic depression.

I met Mark and his family for the first time when I was visiting Wolf Singer's laboratory at the Max-Planck-Institute for Brain Research where Mark was staying as a postdoctoral fellow. The Max-Planck Society funds 80 research establishments covering a broad range of topics from art, law and anthropology to biology, medicine, chemistry, material sciences and physics. The MPI for Brain Research comprised three laboratories at the time. The facilities were located in a cluster of brick-tiled buildings on the opposite bank of the Main in Frankfurt.

Mark proudly drove a very used green BMW 2000Ti and lived with wife and daughter in a small apartment in the western suburb of Schwanheim across the river from a huge chemical plant. Frankfurt's air quality was not as good as today. The river's water was pitch black. A subsidiary of the conglomerate Hoechst AG, Messer Griesheim, was still in full operation. On rainy days the air smelled like in Philadelphia when you pass the refineries.

I remember vividly one occasion on which Mark tried hard with little success to convince his Frankfurter colleagues of the refined taste of the All-American soul food: peanut butter-and-jelly sandwiches. His wife had prepared plates piled high with more than enough for everybody. Not unlike Frankfurt's Aeppelwoi, peanut butter-and-jelly sandwiches are an acquired taste. Only those who have raised children on them will fully appreciate the profound usefulness and true satisfaction they deliver.

By contrast, Mark's work with Wolf Singer and colleagues was a convincing success. The team showed with elegant experiments published in the journals Nature (Bear and Singer, 1986) and Science (Kleinschmidt and others, 1987) and Nature that glutamate and the neuromodulators acetyl choline and norepinephrine play fundamental roles in the plasticity of domains of ocular dominance in visual cortex during postnatal development. The discovery of ocular dominance plasticity had won D.H. Hubel and T.N. Wiesel the Nobel Prize half a dozen years earlier (Hubel and Wiesel, 1998).

After his return to the U.S., Mark continued to investigate the role of glutamate in the organization of nerve cell circuits in cerebral cortex. In a long series of studies, he and his colleagues examined long-term potentiation (LTP) and long-term depression (LTD) as mechanisms for cortical plasticity. The elucidation of the underlying molecular mechanisms led to the G-protein-coupled metabotropic glutamate receptor mGluR5. By contrast to ionotropic receptors that regulate ion fluxes across cellular membranes important to electrical nerve cell signaling, metabotropic receptors regulate cell protein activity and homeostasis. The mGluR5-receptor appears to play a major role in FXS and autism. I have written about this in my post dated April 1, 2008. Designing antagonists against the receptor's actions promises a treatment. Mark points out in his interview with NPR that he was not planning on finding a cure for mental disorders. Things came together serendipitously. It was only with the support and encouragement of the Fragile X Research Foundation (FRAXA) that the work on a potential treatment began.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) provide most funding for biomedical research in the U.S. Measured in inflation-adjusted dollars, the NIH have seen their budget erode in the past 8 years. By contrast, the number of applications for research grants has doubled. As consequence according to the NIH online report, the success rate of competitive grant applications diminished from 32 percent in fiscal year (FY) 2000 to 21 percent in FY 2007. The NIH were able to award about 41 percent of the total cost to new investigator-initiated applications (R01). These are proposals for projects that scientists submit based on their most recent findings. They advance the most innovative ideas and are most likely to lead to new discoveries. The success rate of R01 applications decreased to 19 percent in FY 2007 from 26 percent in FY 2000. The mounting budgetary constraints inevitably result in increasingly conservative funding decisions. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that Mark Bear and his colleagues sought funding outside government for their novel ideas.

Addenda

  • First federal funds for research dry up. Now nonprofit private support evaporates. Read here (12/21/08).
  • Brain plasticity and memory share similar underlying molecular mechanisms. Recent studies have provided evidence that the brain-specific protein-phosphorylating enzyme protein kinase Mzeta (PKMzeta) is necessary to sustain LTP (Sacktor, 2008). Such enzymes commonly upregulate the activity of other enzymes. An increase in enzyme activity resulted in the doubling of postsynaptic glutamatergic ionotropic AMPA receptors, augmenting synaptic transmission in rodents. Inhibiting PKMzeta disrupts long-term memory (Serrano and others, 2008). Benedict Carey published an article entitled "Brain Researchers Open Doors to Editing Memory" in The New York Times on this research and its potential implications for future medical treatments today (04/05/08).
  • According to Lauran Neergaard's report for Associated Press with the title "Experiment Takes Aim at Genetic Learning Disorder" published online in The New York Times today, the first clinical trials to treat FXS in adults with mGluR5 antagonists are underway at five medical centers (02/01/10).
  • According to Gardiner Harris' report with the title "Promise Seen in Drug for Retardation Syndrome" for the New York Times dated Apr. 29, 2010, Novartis completed its first double blind study using its mGluR5 drug on adults with FXS with encouraging results. Details of the study were not disclosed (05/01/10).
  • In her report with the title "Special Report: new drugs, fresh hope for autism patients" published online on Reuters today, Julie Steenhuysen informs us how the search for new drugs to treat FXS and ASD has been shaping up. The article's focus is on the use of derivatives of the established psychoactive compound baclofen. Seaside Therapeutics Inc., co-founded by Mark Bear, is testing arbaclofen (STX209) in clinical trials. The compound acts as an agonist of the inhibitory neurotransmitter gamma-aminobutyric acid, or GABA for short. Baclofen binds to G-protein-coupled metabotropic GABAB-receptors and has traditionally been used to relieve skeletal muscle spasms. In contrast to the compounds acting on mGluR5-receptors discussed in the post, this drug modulates the effects of glutamate indirectly (Fejgin and others, 2009). Considering that more than 100 genes have been identified to play a role in autism, Dr. Edwin Cook's claim in Julie Steenhuysen's report that “many of the genes related to autism are right in the same pathway that has been implicated and worked out in Fragile X” does not come as a surprise (05/31/2012).
  • Two studies of note have been published online in Science Translational Medicine yesterday. Henderson and others (2012) showed in a fragile X mouse model, that The GABAB-receptor agonist arbaclofen alleviated known biochemical (basal protein synthesis), molecular (AMPA-receptor internalization), and cellular (dendritic spine density) manifestations of the disorder. In addition, Barry-Kravis and others (2012) report first encouraging results for arbaclofen in phase II clinical trials. The drug seems to improve social function (09/20/2012).
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Thursday, September 25, 2008

Subprime Lending: Truthiness & Delusion of Mind


After Citigroup collapsed late last year, I wondered whether the underestimation of risk in securitized investments was the result of a failure in using scientific methods of risk assessment. Read my post dated Dec. 5, 2007. Soon, I learned that such methods were widely employed in investment banking and insurance. Apparently, misconception prevailed about the reliability of the predictions that these methods provide.

A year on, we find out that the statistical software did not fail. Any scientific method will provide a realistic prognosis only, if the entered data are correct. We presume that a loan is approved with the assurance that the applicant is going to be able to service the payments through the loan period, provided that the applicant's financial situation does not change dramatically. This good practice seemed to have been widely ignored in the subprime and prime ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) loan market of the past eight years. Too often, applicant naivety and lender carelessness took sway over prudence.

In hindsight, the considerate risk analyst would have welcomed an additional column in the input spreadsheet with a truthiness factor weighting each loan. That is, the loan agent is asked to assign a score estimating the applicant's ability to service the loan once the interest rate resets. The agent could be rewarded for good judgment and the improvement in the quality of loans issued. Perhaps such estimates from the field would have helped to predict the risks with the ensuing securities more accurately.

In the absence of such information, the analyst is left to look at the foreclosures on the loans to examine risk retrospectively in the hope that forward projections gain accuracy. Paul Jackson reports on housingwire.com in a post dated Sep. 5, 2008, that the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced in early September that more than 9 percent of U.S. mortgages were delinquent or in foreclosure at the end of the second quarter of this year. “Subprime ARM loans accounted for 36 percent of all foreclosures started and prime ARMs, which include option ARMs, represented 23 percent,” Jackson quotes MBA's chief economist Brinkmann.

Addenda

  • As The New York Times reports today, I am not far off with my assessment. Listen to this incredible story broadcast on National Public Radio's Morning Edition. What were the banks thinking (11/05/08)?
  • Today, Lynn Adler reports on Reuters that according to a recent Mortgage Bankers Association assessment roughly 13 percent of U.S. households were three months late with mortgage payments or in foreclosure at the end of 2008 (03/05/09).
  • As Michael Osinski, one-time author of bundling and valuation software for mortgages, suggests in this segment broadcast today on National Public Radio's All Things Considered, his programs would have benefited greatly from an entry for the probability with which a borrower was actually able to realize the estimated value of the real estate borrowed against (04/05/09).
  • The current financial crisis began with an extravagant real estate boom that nobody could afford and will end, once the last foreclosed properties are sold. Read David Leonhardt's report in The New York Times, published yesterday.  I reckon that we shall reach the turning point no sooner than 2011 (04/22/09).
  • Lynn Adler reports in a post on Reuters today that foreclosures have by far not peaked out yet according to an analysis by RealtyTrac.com (05/13/09).
  • If you like to find out how many years it will take to recover a loss in home value, you may wish to use the calculator here (05/21/09).
  • According to Nouriel Roubini's assessment of the economic outlook in an interview with Reuters yesterday, my prediction of recovery perhaps in 2011 may not be far off the mark (06/17/09). Watch below:


  • According to Ilaina Jonas' analysis on Reuters today, commercial mortgage holders are also finding it increasingly more difficult to refinance. About 4.5 percent of commercial loans are a month or more in delinquency, compared with 1.2 percent in 2007. Commercial real estate has lost a third in value since. Many borrowers cannot obtain the funding they need. In contrast to residential mortgages, however, lenders are more willing to extend these loans in the hope that the borrowers will regain sufficient liquidity soon (07/23/09).
  • In her post on Reuters today, Lynn Adler reports that according to the latest assessment of RealtyTrac foreclosures reached a new peak with 360,000 filings nationwide in July. Further increases are expected in coming months, when state legislature-instituted moratoria expire. The recession may have bottomed out. But, recovery has not yet begun (08/13/09).
  • According to The Economist's daily chart post dated Aug. 21, 2009, one in four home sales at present results from repossession (08/29/09).
  • Among the bank CEOs who have been testifying before Congress to illuminate the causes of the finnacial crisis, the mortgage brokers seem the most defiant and delusional, denying any failure of risk assessment in their actions during the housing bubble. National Public Radio's news staff published an informative article with the title "Ex-Washington Mutual CEO Criticizes Bank's Seizure" on today's testimony of former Washington Mutual CEO Kerry Killinger before Congress. The text of Killinger's testimony can be downloaded on the Wall Street Journal's site. You may wish to listen to the podcast with his pronouncements entitled "WAMU CEO Defends Bank at Senate Hearing" on Nation Public Radio's All Things Considered (04/13/10).
  • According to Gretchen Morgensons report with the title "How Countrywide Covered the Cracks" published online in The New York Times yesterday, the head of Countrywide Financial Corp. and co-founder of the company Angelo R. Mozilo anticipated in 2005 that the company's aggressive promotion of adjustable-rate mortgages (A.R.M.s), particularly subprime mortgages and pay-option A.R.M.s, would spell disaster, when the housing market slowed and the interest rates reset. Pay-options allowed the borrowers to pay less than the stipulated monthly installments, while their payments were applied only to the interest and the unpaid remainder was added to the mortgage, substantially increasing the mortgaged amount. Already in 2004, adjustable-rate mortgages comprised roughly half of Countrywide's loans and pay-option A.R.M. a quarter. Mr. Mozilo warned of the risk these loans posed to the company in internal communications, but portrayed an upbeat and overtly optimistic picture on the outside. He was also concerned about loans that allowed borrowers to purchase homes without down payments. Despite, his company continued to push these products unrelentingly. Countrywide was sold at bargain price to Bank of America in 2008. Because he continuously had sold his stocks in the company up to that point, without sharing his concerns with investors, he agreed last week in a settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission to pay 67.5 million dollars as penalty and reparations to investors (10/17/10).
  • Jason Zweig posted an informative article entitled "The Man Who Called the Financial Crisis-70 Years Early" with The Wall Street Journal today. The article tells the story of the Hungarian economist Melchior Palyi (1892-1970) who foresaw in the 1930s that many measures the U.S. government implemented to stabilize the economy after Black Tuesday, 1929, would lead to another financial crisis fueled by wide-spread defaults on mortgages (11/06/10).
  • After a month-long hiatus, Bank of America resumes foreclosures on 16,000 residential properties (12/10/10):
  • According to Corbett Daly's report with the title "U.S. single-family home prices fell for a fifth straight month in November and could plumb new lows soon, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday" posted online on Reuters today, the seasonally-adjusted Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas fell 0.5 percent in November from October. The finding suggests that the housing market has yet to recover and we may be headed for a second dip before Spring (01/25/11).
  • I was hoping that the housing crisis would be over by now. But robo-signing, bungles in bank record keeping and the ensuing law suits slowed foreclosures down, impeding recovery of the housing market. In this interview with The Wall Street Journal published yesterday, Nouriel Roubini provides informative insights on the current economic outlook (08/12/2011):



Thursday, September 11, 2008

The Days the Worst Things Happen

Real bad news always strike us in surprise. 
Whatever defenses we devise,
we are standing unwarily, 
making coffee, 
making tea.

The program is interrupted unexpectedly.
 A special announcement is read.

Shots rang out and killed the President!

Airplanes rip into towers.
Thousands are trapped!

Sixteen minutes to landfall,
the spaceship is breaking up!

People are in pieces.
We are standing numb.

We forget about the coffee, tea.
We are transfixed to the radio, TV.
Good people lost lives, loved ones, 
friends, family!

The morning is crisp and bright.
The birds are chirping. 
Things look all right.

Yet, we sense something has changed.
Something has happened far away,
something no good,
and we will always remember
what we did that day.